Sunday, January 01, 2006

2006 Predictions

Mainly technology, but what will probably happen in 2006.
  1. TV shoves out Radio. Podcasting gave new life to radio shows in 2005. It was an extension to the MP3 player boom of 2004. But now cell phones and iPod are accepting video podcasting. So will TiVo and other cable tv DVRs this year. “Video killed the radio star” with a twist.
  2. Musicians will look for iTune alternatives. As a technology is heavily used, it shows weaknesses. Too many cars gave us traffic jams. With iTunes soon to be the major distributor of music, people will look for alternatives. These will probably work with cell phones and have little copy protection.
  3. Cell phones as platform. AJAX really made the browser the new platform. Are there more cell phones than computers on the web yet? This is the new platform. More cell phone games than PC stand alone games this year.
  4. RSS moves behind the firewall.  There will be a lot of action by vendors to RSS-enable their enterprise software which MS has already announced. Everyone will join in. With an RSS reader on every desktop, companies will adapt.
  5. Executive Dashboard will finally make sense as an RSS aggregator. If every employee, every team, every project and every server is spitting out RSS then the executive can tune in. The executives will also be pressured to blog.
  6. Ruby on Rails will get XML or die. Ruby was developed with disdain for XML, but if it flip-flops the the enterprise will adopt Ruby. So it will get XMLed.
  7. Home RFID reader will be sold by major electronic chains. Won’t be a big seller, but home businesses might pickup a few.
  8. GYM will change. Google, Yahoo and Microsoft will change order of their reputations. Just suggesting that one will stumble. Or we’ll add a letter like A or A.
  9. AJAX is Web 2.0. For most users, Web 2.0 will be AJAX. It will be so widely adapted in increments that even the average user will sense a difference. The infrastructure that is really Web 2.0 will be the invisible hand.
  10. HDTV will need universal “set top” box. DVRs like TiVo will be “required” components to HDTV. The clamor will start to allow other electronic products to replace cable TV set top boxes. The “cable-tv ready” set in reverse. If we don’t have to buy our phones from the telco then why do we need to buy their settop boxes?

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