Monday, February 28, 2005

John Robb is a must read.

John Robb continues to look at the hard reality of the world. It will make you interested in politics again even after the US Presidential Election.

WP.  All this pressure on Iran refuses to acknowledge Iran's trump card:  oil.  The oil market, for the first time in its history, is capacity constrained.  The reason:  Chinese demand growth and a loss of 1-2 m barrels a day from Iraq (due to global guerrillas) have changed the market dynamic.  In this new environment, any country with production capacity of more than 2 m barrels a day has the same power as the entirety of OPEC.  Iran has that power.  It could drive oil prices to $100 plus and subtract trillions from the global economy with a flip of a switch.  Our lack of an energy policy limits our options with Iran. 

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